Key Steps for Growth of Indian Internet
India with a second largest population of 1.1 Bn has just 6% of Indians connected via the internet. USA is ranked 28th in the world in connection speeds with a speed of 5 .1 Mbps while India is still struggling with 256 kbps as broadband and adding to the woes of consumers is the il-legal Fair Usage Policy introduced by market players like Airtel and Tata Indicom / Photon+.
It has been clearly evident that adoption of Internet can accelerate business productivity, thereby generating income, jobs and government revenues in emerging economies. The key steps that can help spur the growth of internet in India are,
- Recognize data networks and Internet as critical national infrastructure
Wireless Spectrum – BWA Vs EVDO Vs 3G – Insight
Wireless broadband is the way forward in India which lacks Wired Infrastructure and where it exists, it is in the hands of State Owned Monopoly – BSNL. We’d like to enlighten on the current situation of the underlying infrastructure that powers Broadband in India.
RIL with 20MHz of BWA spectrum, RCOM with 5MHz of pan-India CDMA spectrum (which can answer high speed data needs as well as 3G can) + 3G spectrum, Tata (similar to RCOM), BSNL-MTNL (CDMA, 3G, BWA all pan-India), and MTS (2.5MHz of CDMA spectrum, which may go upto 3.75 based on TRAI recommendations) all have substantial and substantially unutilized data capacity relative toBharti. Till now, they have not tasted spectacular success, but over time, as broadband penetration increases (we don’t doubt that this will happen) those with more spectrum will be at an advantage. Read the rest of this entry »
BWA Likely on WiMax First then to LTE – No Threat to 3G
BWA (Broadband Wireless Access) winners recently received wireless spectrum, our meetings indicate they are no in a hurry to rollout the services given the eco-system constraints and slower pace of equipment procurement. Based on our discussions with industry participants we believe almost all BWA operators will initially rollout Wimax. Some of them intend to move on to LTE (Long-term evolution) in 2-3 years of time, once the eco-system for LTE develops. We do not consider BWA as a near-term threat to 3G given its relatively weaker eco-system and launch in an unpaired band (as a result of which operators may not enjoy scale economy benefits).
WiMax Vs LTE Device eco-system Read the rest of this entry »
Reliance Communications Digicable acquisition – Growth Dilutive
RCOM has acquired >60% of Digicable, a cable TV service provider, in return for combining its DTH business into the new company to be called Reliance Digicom. The company explained that: 1) there would be synergies relating to content (currently
related to 2.5m DTH subscribers); 2) economical digitalisation of cable homes through provision of set-top boxes that can do digital cable as well as DTH (and perhaps IPTV as well); and 3) conversion of these homes gradually into broadband homes.
Can we BUY the Reliance ADAG Story ? No. Consider for instance, Hathaway Cable, a competitor to Digicable, also has a distribution reach of 8m homes, with 1.1m digital subscribers, and 0.5m owned subscribers, largely out of which we believe 0.3m broadband subscribers are drawn. Hence, Read the rest of this entry »
Wireless Net to increase penetration + 30% Wired Network incapable of DSL
The Department of Telecom officials invited several leading industry Analysts for a discussion and here the DoT’s take on Broadband in India.
DOT noted that the fixed-line broadband was leading to a slower-than-expected uptake in broadband penetration, as almost 30%-40% of the total fixed line connections of 36 mn (Source: TRAI) in India were not capable of supporting broadband services. DOT is hopeful that the wireless broadband services will help to increase the broadband penetration materially, the way cellular services helped increase the mobile penetration.
We believe the launch of wireless broadband services by new operators (who secured 3G and Broadband Wireless Access Read the rest of this entry »
Reliance Wireless Broadband likely over LTE
Infotel Broadband Services Ltd, winner of Pan India BWA Spectrum is now 95% owned by Reliance Industries Ltd led by Mukesh Ambani. Reliance told us that,
A single 20 MHz TDD spectrum when used with LTE (Long Term Evolution) has the potential of providing greater capacity when compared to existing communication infrastructure in the country.
This means that Reliance will take the LTE route which is a severe blow to the WiMax Lobby.
As regards BWA auctions, there is not yet a supportive eco-system for WiMAX services in India in the form of devices and network equipment and support. Also, voice services over mobile WiMAX are not yet proven and this technology currently supports data Read the rest of this entry »
State of WiMax – Indian BWA Auction Bids Justified ?
Four years of operation, more than 500 deployments across 148 countries and pathetic 6.5mn subscribers, is not a very good situation to be in for the Indian WiMAX industry. Initial WiMax roll outs in unlicensed spectrum in India have been a miserable failure.
Given that 802.16m is still being developed as a future of WiMAX, we believe that WiMAX in India would be used to provide retail broadband and enterprise leased line services on 802.16e platform. These services are already being provided on other platforms such as DSL, local cable and CDMA data cards, which restricts the revenue earning potential from this spectrum on an immediate basis. Read the rest of this entry »
Five to Six Wireless Broadband Providers in Every Circle
Even before broadband can be deployed using the spectrum earmarked specifically for that purpose, five to six companies will be wireless-broadband-capable in each circle using 3G. If operators gun for BWA in circles where they have not won 3G, it will
be most likely to launch broadband on Wimax. The problems with this approach are that – Wimax favours 2.5GHz more than the auctioned 2.3GHz spectrum, and roadmap, ecosystem and international customer base are not strengthening; this would not really prevent high-ARPU subscribers from defecting to 3G operators, especially after MNP, since subscribers may choose to take handset and data card services from different service providers. Read the rest of this entry »