Archive for September, 2011
How does the New Telecom Policy – NTP 2011 Look like ?
Based on interactions with DoT and TRAI officials we believe the draft NTP 2011 is likely to be out soon and post inviting and incorporating public suggestions the final policy is likely to be announced by the year end.
What will the new policy offer?
Spectrum availability and allotment: Roadmap in the new policy on spectrum availability and allotment.
Spectrum leasing to other operators: This will lead to optimal use of allotted spectrum, higher revenue for government and higher return on capital employed for operators. MVNOs may be permitted.
Any Spectrum Band for any Service – This will allow operators to offer voice and data services on any band of spectrum as long as the ecosystem is developed. Hence, operators who have won 2.3 GHz of spectrum [BWA / LTE Spectrum] under the UAS licence will be able to offer voice services if handsets are available. This, along with spectrum leasing, would help keep Read the rest of this entry »
Why Facebook is Better than Google+ Today ?
A choice is always better than none. Facebook was the unstoppable Social hangout until Google unveiled Google+. Despite being in existence for 3 months, we still like Facebook as a better place to hang out with friends and family compared to Google+ which is designed more as a Killer for Twitter and Facebook for its Information hungry Search engine.
Here are some of the reasons why our friends have continued to use Facebook,
- Photo Tagging – Only Friends in the circle can be tagged while G+ lets tag anybody.
- Chatting + New Wall Updates – The Facebook Status Bar / Chat Bar on the Side is simply marvelous UI engineering to Read the rest of this entry »
3G India 2011 Conference – Takeaways
We present the highlights of the conference, which was attended by mobile operators, content creators and network vendors. 3G service in India is less than 12 months old and is yet to reach the length and breadth of the country. Penetration of 3G in India is around 2% and a typical 3G user in India consumes less than 5MB of data per day. Their are very few ladies like on the left who constantly use 3G network to update their Facebook Profile 
Why Poor Offtake ?
The participants in the conference cited the lack of sufficient spectrum resources, inadequate network coverage, and the absence of massmarket affordable 3G handsets as the key reasons for the poor uptake of 3G services.
When will 3G Boost ARPU of Indian Telecom Companies ?
Most industry personnel felt that 3G services should boost overall customer spend or average revenue per user (ARPU). However, Read the rest of this entry »
Explaining the Falling Net Adds in Mobile / Wireless SIM Subscribers
Indian Telecom Operators have seen sharp declines in Subscriber Net Additions in recent months, with industry net adds falling by nearly two thirds between January and August 2011. Adding to their woes is the Seasonality in Indian Telecom industry.
Indian operators are experiencing among the highest churn rates across the world. In our view, this induces a high degree of volatility into net adds (net adds = gross adds – churn). Other Factors that are contributing to the Falling Net Adds are,
- A fall in gross adds due to changing operator priorities in urban markets where SIM card penetration is high (~160%)—from selling SIM cards to growing revenue earning customers.
- A fall in gross adds due to seasonal weakness in the September quarter. Bharti Airtel’s net adds fell 25% from June 2010 quarter to September 2010 quarter, only to recover completely by December 2010 quarter.
- An increase in disconnections as operators focus on weeding out inactive SIM cards (in the wake of TRAI publishing active VLR subs data every month).
Wireless / Mobile Data Usage Gaining Traction
With 3G being launched in Most Tier – I and Tier II Indian Cities, we hot the road to understand the Wireless Data consumption. While at Delhi, we bumped into these 3 Girls, who were so addicted to their Mobile SmartPhones, they Surf while they Shop and Eat. Convinced by the way 3G is gaining traction, we spoke to Telecom Operators and her is the Key Takeaway on All India basis.
Smartphones in India on an average consume 200-250MB/month on plain-vanilla GPRS packages [2.5G]. A 3G enabled smartphone is averaging 400-500MB/month and a 3G tablet is at 2.0GB/month currently. The large GSM operators have 3G sub base of ~ 2.0-3.0m each as only around 5-10% of the handsets are 3G enabled.
One should note the fact that Tablets having made their first appearance in 2010 are witnessing data usage that is 5x that of a 3G smartphone.
Wireless / Mobile Broadband Data usage is however set to grow as Read the rest of this entry »
Active Mobile SIM Subscribers Rising
The decline in subscriber net additions partly reflects the conscious efforts of the telcos to eliminate wasteful SIM card sales (low revenue potential & no more spectrum allocation based on subscriber numbers) in order to reduce subscriber acquisition costs and preserve numbering resources.
Based on VLR subscriber-based subscriber base of 604m, India’s wireless penetration stands at ~50%. This compares with 72% wireless penetration in India. We believe there is room for growth in active wireless subscriber base / penetration, especially from rural areas.
The following Chart shows Active Subscriber base for Read the rest of this entry »
Mobile Call Tariff Hike – Industry on Cost Cutting
We first Analyzed the Mobile Call Tariff hike in India after talking to various operators and their strategies. During this interim period we closely monitored the actions of Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular. What we infer now is there is still scope for small upside from increases in call rates on Special Tariff Vouchers – STVs, in our view.
Revenue Per Minute Analysis
Based on our discussions with the industry, we believe that large incumbents should be carrying 60-70% of calls on base tariffs. Using this information, the net increase in RPM for incumbent operators should be about 5.5%, from headline tariff increases alone. Assuming no change in usage and given current margin levels, every 1% RPM increase should lead to 65 bp and 75bp margin increases for Airtel and Idea.
Further, we note that cost control by the industry over the Read the rest of this entry »
Baidu Personalized Search Homepage – Lessons for Google
One of our Analysts had a Chance to Review the new homepage of Baidu – China’s leading Online Search Gateway. Large scale migration to personalized search homepage will be gradual, as both content accumulation and the form of a new user habit take time.
Lessons from Baidu’s Management even Which Google Maybe Interested in:
Users do not like dramatic change, thus Baidu simplified its previously proposed version and added back the traditional search query box, to make the top part of the homepage the same as the traditional one.
Why Slow Roll out ?
Many users are not used to the new homepage, so Baidu added the link to allow users to switch back to the traditional version right before it officially launched this personalized homepage
The Following Screenshot Shows the new Baidu’s Read the rest of this entry »
